The strong relationship between climate and peatland distribution suggests that future climate change will exert a strong influence on peatlands. Predicted future changes in climate of particular relevance to peatlands include rising temperatures, changes in the amount, intensity and seasonal distribution of rainfall, and reduced snow extent in high latitudes and in mountain areas. These changes will have significant impacts on the peatland carbon store, greenhouse gas fluxes and biodiversity.   Global temperature rises of 1.l-6.4°C will be higher in northern high latitudes where the greatest extent of peatlands occurs. High latitudes are likely to experience increased precipitation while mid-latitudes and some other regions may have reduced precipitation at certain times of the year. All areas may be susceptible to drought due to increased variability in rainfall. Increasing temperatures will increase peatland primary productivity by lengthened growing seasons. Decay rates of peat will increase as a result of rising temperatures, potentially leading to increased CH4 and CO2 release. Changes in rainfall and water balance will affect peat accumulation and decay rates. Tree lines in northern peatlands will shift poleward as a result of higher summer temperatures, and hydrological changes may result in increased forest extent on open peatlands. The resulting reduced albedo will positively feed back on global warming. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation indicate that peatlands will experience large climate changes over this century. Possible (top) mean annual temperature and (bottom) June-August precipitation chnage fo 2090-2099. (Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007)    Increased rainfall intensity may increase peatland erosion. This may be amplified by anthropogenic drainage and overgrazing. Greater drought will lead to an increase of fire frequency and intensity, although human activity is expected to remain the primary cause of fire. Hydrological changes, combined with temperature rises, will have far-reaching effects on greenhouse gas exchange in peatlands. Drier surfaces will emit less CH4, more N20 and more C02, and the converse for wetter surfaces. Melting permafrost will probably increase CH4 emissions and lead to increased loss of dissolved organic carbon in river runoff. Inundation of coastal peatlands may result in losses of biodiversity and habitats, as well as in increased erosion, but local impacts will depend on rates of surface uplift. The combined effect of changes in climate and resultant local changes in hydrology will have consequences for the distribution and ecology of plants and animals that inhabit peatlands or use peatlands in a significant part of their life cycles. Human activities will increase peatland vulnerability to climate change in many areas. In particular, drainage, burning and over-grazing will increase the loss of carbon through oxidation, fire and erosion. Sea level rise may lead to erosion of peatlands by wave action (Tierra del Fuego, Argentina) Peat erosion on the Shetland mainland (UK) after an exceptionally heavy rainsttorm in September 2003

Climate warming leads to desiccation and desertification of peatlands in steppe regions such as in Central Asia, Mongolia. In the 1950s the pictured habitats were still described as impassable wet peatlands     Climate warming raises the probability of peat fires all over the world especially in peat swamp forests in SE Asia.   Peat washed down from eroded mountain peatlands in Mongolia   Climate change will enhance the incidence of peat fires. During extreme drought in 2002 even very wet raised bogs burned in European Russia     Melting of permafrost leads to degradation and destruction of palsas and expansion of fen peatlands with associated changes in GHG emissions and biodiversity, West Siberia, Russia     Unsustainable use of peatlands, like overgrazing, could strongly increase peatlands' vulnerability to climate change